About
Concept & Methodology
Overall Concept
To address planetary change’s drivers, societal transformations at all levels and across various sectors are needed concurrently and synergistically. In fact, the first Global Assessment by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the recent special report on Global Warming of 1.5°C of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) both argue that a sustainable world cannot be achieved without a transformative systemic change of our societies. The transition towards a just and sustainable future involves addressing simultaneously complex, multi-faceted processes, involving long time frames and multiple actors, cumulatively resulting from positive and negative feedback mechanisms at the Nexus of: a) Climate – biodiversity – society, and b) Multiple indirect drivers: complex, global value chains of consumer goods and behaviour patterns. Such complexity means that no single approach, technology, intervention or policy instrument can achieve transformative change, often resulting in large numbers of policy instruments being implemented over time to address multiple objectives.
Numerous approaches have been developed to help address these issues, including the concepts of natural capital and ecosystem services, quantifying environmental footprints and planetary boundaries, and integrated ecosystem management. However, the complex data on material flows and footprints and the globalised framing of their dynamics inhibit their use and application.
In this respect, BIOTRAILS’s mission is to generate knowledge and develop tools that will inspire and accelerate biodiversity-relevant transformative change in our society, using Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling (PSDM) to take into account the complex interrelations between the indirect drivers of change in four value chains of traded products (cocoa produced in Peru; fisheries and aquaculture products supplied by the Mediterranean basin; gold mined in Ghana, and forest-based cultural products created by indigenous communities in the Brazilian Amazon), and in an integrated manner alongside the climate and social justice agendas. Based on this knowledge and tools, BIOTRAILS brings together stakeholders across different stages of product/material global value chains to collaboratively design pathways that can lead to a sustainable future, proposing interventions in policy, urban consumption patterns and corporate policies.
BIOTRAILS Methodology
A System Dynamics Approach Navigating the Biodiversity-Climate-Society Nexus
The BIOTRAILS project recognises the intricate and interconnected nature of the Biodiversity-Climate-Society (BCS) Nexus. Sustainable management of this Nexus and the transformative change required to achieve it demand a holistic approach that moves beyond traditional, siloed thinking. To this end, BIOTRAILS employs Participatory System Dynamics Modeling (PSDM) as a core methodology to foster a shared understanding of Nexus’s complexities and to co-create pathways towards a sustainable future. Our approach begins with engaging stakeholders – including scientists, policymakers, industry representatives, and local communities – in a collaborative process to develop Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). These CLDs serve as visual representations of the collective mental models regarding the BCS Nexus, specifically within the context of the different case studies. Through facilitated workshops and discussions, stakeholders contribute their diverse knowledge and perspectives to map out the key variables, feedback loops, and causal relationships that drive the system’s behaviour. This participatory process ensures that the model reflects the realities and priorities of those most affected by the Nexus and fosters a sense of ownership and shared understanding among stakeholders. The resulting CLDs have been instrumental in identifying the critical challenges within the Nexus, highlighting the often-hidden connections between biodiversity loss, climate change impacts, and societal pressures.
Building upon the foundational CLDs, the BIOTRAILS methodology then transitions to developing Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs). This quantitative phase translates the qualitative relationships captured in the CLDs into a dynamic simulation model. Stocks represent accumulations within the system (e.g., forest biomass, carbon in the atmosphere, public awareness), while flows represent the rates at which these stocks change. By assigning values and mathematical relationships to these elements, informed by scientific data and stakeholder expertise, the SFDs allow us to simulate the behaviour of the BCS Nexus over time and under different scenarios.
Using SFDs to Identify Leverage Points
This quantitative modelling is crucial for identifying leverage points – those critical places within the system where targeted interventions can generate significant and positive system-wide changes (Meadows, 2008). The SFDs enable us to test the potential impacts of various policy interventions and management strategies, exploring their long-term consequences and uncovering potential unintended side effects. By simulating different scenarios, we can assess which leverage points offer the greatest potential for achieving transformative change towards sustainability, such as promoting sustainable land management practices, shifting societal consumption patterns, or investing in green technologies.
Co-Creating Sustainable Solutions with Stakeholders
The BIOTRAILS approach goes beyond simply analysing the system; it actively seeks to empower stakeholders to become agents of change. The insights gained from the PSDM process, particularly identifying high-leverage interventions, are shared and discussed with stakeholders through interactive workshops and accessible visualisations. This iterative model development, simulation, and feedback process fosters a deeper understanding of the system’s dynamics and builds consensus around the most promising pathways towards a sustainable future.
BIOTRAILS aims to bridge the gap between theoretical understanding and practical action within the BCS Nexus by combining the power of participatory methods with the rigour of system dynamics modelling. Our methodology provides a robust framework for co-creating knowledge, identifying leverage points, and designing effective interventions that can navigate the complexities of the Nexus and catalyse the transformative change needed for a thriving planet and a resilient society.