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Assessing Future Risks: Climate Projections Guide BIOTRAILS Action
How will climate change affect cocoa in Peru, fish in the Mediterranean, or gold mining in Ghana? BIOTRAILS project has taken a significant step towards answering this question.
D3.8: Climate Projections report, outlines expected climate risks across the project’s four case studies. The findings are based on scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and include indicators such as temperature, rainfall and sea salinity, combined with data on social and economic conditions.
Produced by consortium partner DRAXIS ENVIRONMENTAL SA, the report identifies which areas and sectors are most exposed to future risk.
Peru (Ucayali) – Cocoa Production
In Ucayali, temperatures are projected to increase by +2°C and +4.5°C by 2050 and 2090, respectively, under a high-emissions scenario. Cocoa production in this region is highly vulnerable, given the predominance of smallholder farms and the limited adaptive capacity of producers, which is influenced by factors such as age, gender, and education- the average farmer age is 50 years., the majority have only completed primary education, and women make up 41% of producers. Considering also the areas where cocoa is mostly cultivated, the highest risks are anticipated in the regions of Padre Abad, Coronel Portillo, and Atalaya.
Figure 1: Spatial representation of the mean near-surface air temperature change between reference period (1995-2014) and the future period 2041-2060 (under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), Ucayali region in Peru.
Brazil (Rondônia) – Sustainable forest-based cultural products
In Rondônia, temperatures are expected to increase by +1.9°C and +4.2°C up to 2050 and 2090, respectively, under SSP3-7.0. Additionally, heavy precipitation days are projected to rise by 6 and 11 days annually over the same periods. Handicraft production in this region is particularly vulnerable due to the high reliance of indigenous communities on natural resources and their limited adaptive capacity, as the sector is predominantly led by women with low levels of formal education. Given also the forest areas where indigenous communities inhabit, the highest risks are anticipated in Porto Velho, Ariquemes, and Ji-Paraná regions.
Figure 2: Number of heavy precipitation days in a year (>95%) for the reference period 1995-2014 and the future period 2041-2060 (under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), Rondônia region in Brazil.
Greece - Fisheries
Sea surface temperatures in Greece are projected to increase by approximately +1.3°C by 2050 and +2.7°C by 2090 under SSP3-7.0. The Greek fisheries production has an important contribution to the overall Mediterranean fishery production while the sector is also important for preserving the cultural identity of many coastal areas. However, the sector is quite vulnerable to climate change due to the predominance of small-scale fisheries and the limited economic sustainability of the activity. Considering also the spatial distribution of fish catches, the regions most at risk include Strymonikos, Thermaikos, Argolida-Saronikos, and the Lamia Gulf.
Greece - Aquaculture
Greece’s aquaculture production contributes significantly to the overall Mediterranean aquaculture production; however, it is vulnerable to climate change as it is directly exposed to increased temperatures and extreme climatic phenomena threatening the viability of several fish species. The industry’s dependence on wild-caught fish for fish feed and pressures from overfishing compound these challenges. Taking also into account the spatial distribution of aquaculture production, the highest climate-related risks are observed in the aquaculture zones of Central Greece, Central Macedonia and Epirus.
Figure 3: Spatial representation of sea-surface temperature for the reference period 1995-2014 and the future period 2041-2060 (under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), Greece.
Ghana – Gold Mining
In Ghana, temperatures are projected to rise by +1.6°C and +3.8°C up to 2050 and 2090, respectively, under a high emissions scenario. Regions with extensive mining operations face high exposure to climate risks. This, combined with the sector’s vulnerability—driven by the dependence of local populations on mining and the substantial share of small-scale gold mining—places the regions of Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, Greater Accra, and Oti at particularly high risk.
Access the full report D3.8 now to explore all the data and maps!
Figure 4: Spatial representation of near-surface air temperature for the reference period 1995-2014 and the future period 2041-2060 (under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), Ghana.