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How Participatory System Dynamic Modelling is strengthening Nexus thinking in BIOTRAILS
As sustainability challenges grow increasingly complex, the BIOTRAILS project is pioneering new ways to understand and manage the intricate interconnections between biodiversity, climate, and society. A key innovation in this effort is the use of Participatory System Dynamics Modelling (PSDM), a method that brings together scientific analysis and stakeholder knowledge to co-design strategies for transformative change. Documented in Deliverable D3.10, PSDM has been applied across the four diverse BIOTRAILS case studies. Through a series of participatory workshops, local stakeholders – including community members, industry representatives, and policymakers – collaborated to map out the dynamics of their socio-ecological systems.
Using tools like Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs), participants visualised feedback loops, identified leverage points, and started discussing the long-term impacts of potential policy interventions.
Key Insights or Results
This participatory approach revealed powerful insights. Across all case studies, certain leverage points—such as institutional capacity, education, and community awareness—emerged as critical drivers of change. In Ghana, for example, strengthening institutional frameworks was key to addressing land degradation and deforestation. In the Amazon, supporting indigenous knowledge and handicraft activities proved essential for forest conservation. These findings underscore the value of integrating local perspectives into system modelling, helping to uncover cross-sectoral dynamics that traditional approaches might overlook.
The transition from qualitative CLDs to quantitative SFDs allowed us to simulate future scenarios and assess existing and potential trade-offs. For instance, while illegal mining may offer short-term economic benefits, it has been shown to undermine long-term community well-being and environmental health. Similarly, the models highlighted how reinforcing loops – like public trust in institutions – can – amplify the effectiveness of policy interventions, while balancing loops can help stabilise systems under stress.
Beyond informing local strategies, the PSDM framework developed in BIOTRAILS offers a replicable model for other regions. Its adaptability to different socio-ecological contexts, combined with its emphasis on stakeholder engagement, makes it a powerful tool for guiding sustainability transitions. By fostering shared understanding and co-creating evidence-based policies, PSDM is helping to build more resilient, inclusive, and forward-looking governance systems.
To explore the full methodology, case study insights, and policy implications, we invite you to read Deliverable D3.10 – “PSDM processes for Nexus understanding and management (B)”.